Snow Day Predictions by State – When Closures Happen Most

When winter storms arrive, some states are far more likely to shut down schools than others. While snowfall may seem like the biggest factor, the reality is that geography, infrastructure, and district policies all play significant roles in whether classes are canceled.

As a meteorologist who has tracked snow day probabilities for over 20 years, I’ve studied how snow days vary across the country. In this post, we’ll explore which states are most prone to closures, which rarely call them, and the reasons behind these regional differences.

The Northeast: Frequent Snow, Frequent Closures

The Northeast—including states like Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania—is one of the regions where snow day predictions are most reliable.

Why closures are common: Heavy snow is frequent, and while plow systems are strong, many school districts err on the side of caution for morning commutes.
Historical accuracy: In the 2024–25 season, my forecasts for Boston and Albany matched official closures over 80% of the time.
Typical threshold: Closures often occur when snowfall exceeds 6–8 inches, or when snow hits during rush hour.

The Midwest: Snow-Hardened but Cautious

In the Midwest, including Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, snow is almost a daily occurrence in winter. These states are well-equipped to deal with snow, but that doesn’t mean snow days never happen.

Why closures vary: Districts are resilient, often staying open through moderate storms. However, ice storms and blizzards remain key closure drivers.
Historical trend: Data from 2024 showed that Minneapolis schools closed only twice despite over 40 inches of snowfall during the season.
Typical threshold: Closures are more likely with 10+ inches of snow or severe wind chills.

The South: Small Snowfalls, Big Closures

In the South—states like Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina—snow days are rare, but closures are much more likely when even a dusting of snow occurs.

Why closures are common in small storms: These states lack the plowing infrastructure and de-icing equipment found in northern states.
Historical data: In January 2025, 1–2 inches of snow closed schools across Atlanta, while northern cities handled far larger totals without issue.
Typical threshold: Even 1–2 inches of snow or ice can cause widespread closures.

This unpredictability makes tools like the Snow Day Predictor especially valuable for families in these regions, where rare storms often trigger surprise cancellations.

The Mountain States: Geography Adds Complexity

In states like Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, snow totals are often high, but closures depend heavily on geography.

Why closures are uneven: Cities like Denver may remain open during storms, while mountain towns close due to steep roads and limited visibility.
Historical observation: During Winter 2024–25, Colorado schools in rural mountain areas had twice as many closures as urban schools.
Typical threshold: Closures are triggered by steep icy roads and whiteout conditions, more than total snowfall.

The Pacific Northwest: Wet, Heavy Snow

In Washington and Oregon, snow is less frequent but often wet and heavy, creating dangerous road conditions.

Why closures happen: Snow quickly turns to slush and refreezes overnight, creating ice hazards.
Historical note: Seattle closed schools three times in Winter 2024 despite relatively modest snow totals.
Typical threshold: 3–4 inches of wet snow is enough to cause closures.

States with the Fewest Snow Days

Some states almost never call snow days, either due to mild winters or robust snow management systems:

Alaska: Surprisingly, schools here rarely close. Residents and infrastructure are highly adapted to snow.
North Dakota: Even with severe snowstorms, schools often stay open unless conditions are extreme.
Florida & Gulf States: Snow days are virtually nonexistent, though rare ice events may cause delays.

What These Patterns Tell Us

The differences in snow day closures by state reflect more than just weather—they reveal how infrastructure, safety policies, and community expectations shape decisions.

Northern states: Reliable closures tied to measurable thresholds.
Southern states: Unpredictable closures triggered by minor storms.
Mountain states: Geography adds localized risks.
Pacific Northwest: Wet snow and ice increase hazard levels.

This regional perspective helps parents, students, and teachers set realistic expectations when winter storms hit.

Conclusion

Snow day predictions vary widely across the U.S., with closures most likely in the Northeast and South, less common in the Midwest, and heavily dependent on geography in the Mountain West and Pacific Northwest. While no forecast can be perfect, understanding these state-by-state patterns makes it easier to anticipate when closures are most likely.

For families and educators, recognizing these differences—and preparing accordingly—remains essential during every winter season.